We've lost a lot of good horses on this trail, including two of my expected heavy hitters, Flashback and Uncaptured. Still, this field is looking pretty good, especially in morning works and gallops. I'm having a hard time deciding which horse to back in a week! (Granted, a lot can happen in a week.)
I want to take the time to give a short analysis of each horse in the field, complete with videos of their latest works and gallops. I'll start with the top ten today and look at the bottom ten point earners tomorrow. That means we will start with Orb right after this break.
(All of these workout videos are courtesy of the kentuckyderby channel on YouTube, a source that is a lifesaver in catching up with all that I've missed.)
My first thought when I look at Orb is, "big." He just looks big. He has one of the most unique heads I've seen on a Thoroughbred. He gets over the ground powerfully, but not so much as to look clumsy. He seems to float over the ground in this gallop. I wish I would have gotten to see the whole thing rather than a 30 second clip. Orb also seems to have a lot of energy, but he doesn't go crazy with it. That's a good sign in Derby week - a show of energy and spirit.
Some say that he is too slow to handle this group; I disagree. The levels that he competed at in the past are nothing compared to this. Some say that might hinder him; I believe he is a horse that does all he needs to in order to win and will rise to the challenge of tougher competition. Let's not forget he defeated a juvenile champion last time out in Shanghai Bobby (albeit injured). He's still my tentative number 1, because a) I'm waiting to watch him work and b) there is another horse rapidly taking his place as the days go by.
It's not embedding all of the videos for Verrazano, so we'll make do with these two on the page and, from them, you can branch out to watch the other two floating out there, including the one from today. To be honest, I'm not too impressed. Everyone keeps touting this horse as Pletcher's best, but, in my eyes, he's not. He has improved from his first work a week ago to this morning's exercise, but not enough. He'll have to make giant strides in the week to get any sort of seal of approval from me. He just doesn't seem to be thriving as well as the other top horses.
In fact, I've never been high on Verrazano in the first place. I liked his half-brother, El Padrino, much better for this race last year, and look how he turned out. Even his Wood Memorial win was lackluster. (On the other hand, runner-up Normandy Invasion has never looked better.) Now, watch this horse prove me completely wrong at this time next week.
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I don't see any video on Goldencents up yet. He put in a workout at Santa Anita a few days ago but has yet to make an appearance at Churchill Downs. I will reserve my judgement on him until he arrives and starts training.
Java's War's gallops have been pretty great so far. He has a very action that's more suited for a turf horse, but, as shown in the past, Churchill can be very good to turf/synthetic types. However, in his workout this morning (in company with stablemate Frac Daddy) he floundered. He just didn't look good at all. Not a good sign for the son of War Pass. Frac Daddy went significantly better than he did. There is the chance that it was an off day for the Derby contender, but at this point, you really can't afford to have off days. Unless he shows major improvement in the next few days, a toss for me.
But from what I've seen of him on this track, he seems merely average. In the bottom video, a work in company with Palace Malice, he is the worse of the two. Palace Malice is a nice horse but an underachiever on the racetrack; he's only won once in six starts. However, the little Curlin colt looked much better than his Grade 1 winning stablemate. Overanalyze needs to turn it on in the next week.
You remember when I said there was a horse slowly replacing Orb as my number 1? Yeah, this horse is it. It's a pity his work from today isn't on YouTube yet. I tell you what, this horse looks GOOD. He gets over the ground very well and is full of spirit. He's my ideal picture of what a Thoroughbred racehorse should be - lean, leggy and fit. The Pletcher-Borel-WinStar team have won a Derby before, and this horse is better than Super Saver ever was.
Yeah, Revolutionary has it all - looks, guts and fitness. He's Todd Pletcher's best shot to win the Derby this year...not Verrazano. I can't wait to see what he can do on Derby day. (I'm still kicking myself for leaving him out of my fantasy stable, too.)
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I have no clue what's going on with Lines of Battle. There have been no news headlines regarding him. Is he coming or not? Frankly, I don't believe he has much of a shot anyway, so I'm not too worried about the lack of information. We'll just have to see how he trains.
Rudy Rodriguez's gelding is a tank of a horse. Stocky and workmanlike, he gets the job done during morning training. Although he looked a little lackluster in the Wood Memorial, there were issues nagging at him. After a stint at the farm, he is back with renewed vitality. I fancy the look of him a lot more than I do Verrazano. I'm a little disappointed that the workout video does not include a gallop out...I would like to see that. I'm also still a little concerned about Vyjack getting the distance. However, if he keeps training with this energy, the distance might not matter. He could run all day.
I'll say something silly...I have a thing for chestnuts. And since Will Take Charge is the only chestnut in the top 20 so far, I naturally have a soft spot for him. Okay, silliness over. I've always liked this horse, but my confidence is slowly waning. I'm afraid that Lukas won't have him sharp enough after his LONG layoff. Now, I'm not one to contradict the ways of a Hall of Fame trainer, but I'm iffy on the way he's been training at Churchill Downs. He certainly doesn't look as good as Oxbow, a stablemate that he's defeated in the past. He just doesn't look like he'll be in form in time for the Derby. Which is a shame, because, like I said, I'm quite the fan of this horse - regardless of what color he is.
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Itsmyluckyday hasn't made it to Churchill yet, I believe. Until then, I am casually neutral on this colt.
Tomorrow, we'll go from Govenor Charlie to Code West, since what I've heard is that Winning Cause will not become his trainer's sixth (!) entry in the Derby. Until then, take care!
EDIT: Disregard what I've said about Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday...according to social media, they have arrived! Now let's see how they trained. Sorry for the misinformation!
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